Key points:

  • Most Wall Street executives are uncertain about which presidential candidate to support — Donald Trump or Kamala Harris.
  • Concerns about Trump: despite his Wall Street-friendly measures, his economic policies could lead to instability.
  • Harris is viewed as an “unknown quantity,” with many fearing she will continue Biden’s path of increased regulation.

A significant portion of Wall Street leadership expresses doubts about supporting either of the U.S. presidential candidates. Concerns arise from both Donald Trump’s potential negative economic policies and Kamala Harris’s possible lean toward left-wing policies.

While some influential financial figures like Bill Ackman, John Paulson, and George Soros have already made their choice, most senior executives are carefully analyzing the economic programs presented by the candidates and the potential implications for the country’s legal and democratic systems. This insight comes from numerous conversations with financial sector representatives in recent weeks.

Pros and cons of Trump and Harris

Despite implementing measures favorable to Wall Street in the past, many executives believe Republican candidate Donald Trump’s policies could lead to economic and political instability. On the other hand, Kamala Harris, seen as a reliable candidate, was only nominated by the Democratic Party in late July after President Joe Biden withdrew from the race, and many still view her as an unknown quantity. Executives fear that Harris might continue Biden’s course of increasing regulation in sectors that are profitable for Wall Street.

Those who have spoken out include both Republicans and Democrats, as well as a few individuals openly supporting either Trump or Harris, and others who have not declared their political affiliations. According to Bruce Mehlman, a partner at the bipartisan lobbying firm Mehlman Consulting, which has clients in various industries, many expect Trump to continue his previous course of populism, protectionism, and active deregulation. However, he noted that there is still a need to better understand Harris’s positions and views, as her economic speech on Wednesday did not provide Wall Street with additional clarity.

Expectations from the candidates

Trump, as in his first term, promises to cut taxes and reduce regulation, but most executives believe these benefits could be offset by his proposed tariffs, which could cause inflation. Additionally, the tax cuts could increase the U.S. deficit. This week, Trump announced further increases in planned tariffs. Caroline Levitt, the national press secretary for his campaign, stated that Wall Street investors support Trump because they remember how his policies boosted economic growth, reduced inflation, and allowed people to save more money.

Meanwhile, Harris’s plan, which analysts view as more economically favorable, includes raising taxes. This could reduce corporate profits and affect stock prices, but it would also partially offset the expected deficit growth. Harris has said little about financial policy so far, but she has emphasized her tough stance on banks, referencing her experience as a prosecutor, and indicated she intends to continue Biden’s crackdown on hidden banking fees.